The winter surge in COVID-19 cases predicted by experts is here. The statistics are mind numbing. On the bright side we have one vaccine shipping and more on the way. But having a vaccine is not the same as ending the pandemic. For things to return to anything approaching normal will require 75-80% of the population to be vaccinated.
What exactly does "population" mean? For most Americans it means the people in their community. The places they visit as they go about their daily routine. If a community reaches 80% immunity the virus has little chance of survival. If, say, a stranger came to town who was infected (apologies to Tolstoy), the odds of coming into contact with someone who was not immune are reasonably low. Sad to say, if that did happen it would be someone who chose not to get the vaccine, and justice will be served, one way or another. The point is, with 80% immunity the infection is unlikely to spread. Compare this to building a fire in a backyard barbecue. Done right, the fire is unlikely to spread. What we have now, as I write this, is an out of control wildfire, and it is going to remain a raging inferno for quite some time.
If having a vaccine makes you optimistic, I have some bad news. Every year thousands of Americans die from the common flu. Most of them could have avoided death by getting a flu shot. Many more would never even get sick. Why does this happen? Because only about 40% of Americans get a flu shot.
When the polio vaccine was created people went all out to get themselves and their children vaccinated. Due to this remarkable effort we have virtually eliminated polio, not just in America but around the world. The same is true of smallpox.
That's great, but what about measles? We were just at the point where it was gone when some ill-informed people began spreading erroneous information about the side effects of the measles vaccine. Frightened mothers decided not to vaccinate their children, and what happened? The virus took off again. It is still running around.
With COVID we have a new challenge. Politics. Even setting aside the crazy hyperbole surrounding the pandemic and subsequent vaccine -- created by radical left-wing technologists to insert microchips to control the world, etc. -- it is clear that to many people, getting the vaccine conflicts with their conservative position. A Texas doctor interviewed on NPR recently reported doing an informal interview at his hospital and found that only half of the nurses planned on getting vaccinated.
My point in all this is that I do not anticipate a return to racing in 2021. I see where some IM races have already been held, even as the fall surge was underway. I consider that reckless. Now that the virus is totally out of control I cannot imagine any municipality allowing a race to go on. Maybe, with a lot of luck, things will improve enough by summer to allow groups going out to dinner and family vacations. Even small, local races might -- and I stress might -- go off much like they used to. But a big race, like an Ironman or a major marathon, where thousands of people descend upon a small community. I just do not see how that would be safe.
So where does that leave us? I see two paths. Remain on a marking time routine, or train for races that will not happen. And, for the second option, doing the race yourself. 2020 was the year of virtual racing, and we should expect no less in 2021.
TrainingPeaks has many articles on coping with the pandemic (here is a list). Philip Hatzis and others make the point that this is not the time to train hard, because there is evidence that hard training weakens the immune system and increases the risk of upper respiratory tract infection. Another way of looking at it is to take advantage of the lack of racing to focus more on aerobic threshold development, the long, low intensity stuff.
When I take into account what Joe Friel recommends in Fast After 50 I see good balance between high and low intensity. He argues that masters athletes too often fall into a routine of only doing LSD (Long, Slow, Distance) work, with the result of a steadily declining capacity. Why is that? I cannot repeat everything he writes about here, but to summarize, as we age our hormone levels drop -- testosterone for men and estrogen for women. That leads to a loss of muscle mass and a tendency to convert more of what we eat into fat. The skinny legs fat belly syndrome. Including some high intensity interval work will slow the decline in the efficiency of our energy systems, and lifting weights -- we are talking low rep high load efforts here -- will maintain bone health and trigger hormone production. We may not be able to perform as well as we did when we were twenty, but we do not need to sit and watch the world pass by, either.
To me it sounds like we have two choices. Throttle back and hold in place to protect our immune system, or keep going with a balanced approach to slow the aging process. Being an old guy specializing in coaching old guys and gals, I like the second option.
By the way, if you prefer plan A, hold in place, Joe Friel put out a terrific training plan for just this purpose. Available on TrainingPeaks and very reasonably priced ($10), it is a four week plan designed to be repeated indefinitely. It won't get you to the podium at your next Ironman, but it will keep you going until things return to normal. If you are under 50 (40 for women) I recommend this plan.
Since I am just getting started as a coach I am using this opportunity to hone my training plan writing skills. I mostly have the basics down. What messes me up are the little details. I tend to prescribe too much work and not enough recovery time.
I have given myself two A race goals, corresponding to Ironman 70.3 Hawaii (Honu), usually held on the first Saturday in June, and Ironman Kona in October. Pretty much the same thing I did last year. We were so shut down last spring that I did not do a Honu race simulation. Later on I started to do some of the Ironman VR series. I did do the full Ironman VR Kona in October, but, as allowed by the rules, I did the events on separate dates with one or two rest days in between. My goal for 2021 is to do both races as single day solo efforts. Let's save the debate on which is harder, all in one day or spread out over multiple days. What I can say for sure is that route planning and support will be a big challenge.
More about that in future posts. My Honu training plan starts in three weeks.
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